June 21st, 2016

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сунниты, шииты и финансирование Брукингс

Интересная статья из Харпера про сложности ближневосточной политики. http://harpers.org/archive/2016/01/a-special-relationship/

В целом довольно неконвенциональный для западной пресы взгляд, но он довольно многое объясняет из того, что кажется совершенно шизофреническим при мейнстримном вгляде - США защищают от бомбежек Аль-Каэду, сначала поддерживают революцию против военных в Египте, а затем свержение военными демократически избранного после революциии президента, Пентагон воюет с ЦРУ, иракские иррегулярные отряды разъежают на американских танках и хаммерах под командованием иранских революционных стражей, с одной и той же турецкой авиабазы летают самолеты то бомбить курдов, то бомбить в поддержку курдов итд.

Из самого сочного:

a coalition of Syrian rebel groups calling itself Jaish al-Fatah — the Army of Conquest — swept through the northwestern province of Idlib, posing a serious threat to the Assad regime. Leading the charge was Al Qaeda’s Syrian branch, known locally as Jabhat al-Nusra (the Nusra Front) [...] At the beginning of the year [2015], Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri had ordered his followers to cooperate with other groups. In March, according to several sources, a U.S.-Turkish-Saudi “coordination room” in southern Turkey had also ordered the rebel groups it was supplying to cooperate with Jaish al-Fatah. The groups, in other words, would be embedded within the Al Qaeda coalition.

[John Biden:] "our allies were so determined to take down Assad and essentially have a proxy Sunni-Shia war, what did they do? They poured hundreds of millions of dollars and tens, thousands of tons of weapons into anyone who would fight against Assad. Except that the people who were being supplied were al-Nusra and Al Qaeda and the extremist elements of jihadis coming from other parts of the world"

[...] Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state, testified on Capitol Hill that there was a “new strategic alignment” in the Middle East, separating “extremists” (Iran and Syria) and “reformers” (Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states). [!!!] Undergirding these diplomatic euphemisms was something more fundamental. Prince Bandar bin Sultan, who returned to Riyadh in 2005 after many years as Saudi ambassador in Washington, had put it bluntly in an earlier conversation with Richard Dearlove, the longtime head of Britain’s MI6. “The time is not far off in the Middle East,” Bandar said, “when it will be literally God help the Shia. More than a billion Sunnis have simply had enough.” The implications were clear. Bandar was talking about destroying the Shiite states of Iran and Iraq, as well as the Alawite (which is to say, Shia-derived) leadership in Syria.

Кстати, вот интересный разбор механики принятия решений от, наоборот, инсайдера. http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2016/06/defense-obamas-syria-choices/129230/?oref=d-topstory Местами очень откровенно, особенно про иррелевантность суверенитета.